The spring 2024 auction season approaches with cautious optimism. After two years of market cooling from the 2022 peak, the major houses have assembled offerings designed to tempt even hesitant bidders. Here's what to watch.
The Consignments: Quality Over Quantity
This season's strategy is clear: fewer lots, higher quality, conservative estimates. Christie's and Sotheby's have both reduced evening sale sizes, focusing on works with impeccable provenance and undisputed museum quality. The de la Cruz Collection at Christie's promises major works by Felix Gonzalez-Torres and Ana Mendieta, while Sotheby's modern evening features a rare Monet haystack and potentially record-setting Surrealist works.
Market Conditions: Cautious Confidence
Following the challenges of 2023, when global auction sales fell 4% to $65 billion, this spring feels pivotal. Interest rates remain elevated, geopolitical uncertainty persists, yet the pool of ultra-high-net-worth collectors continues growing. The houses have learned that aggressive estimates deter bidding; this season's lower expectations may ironically fuel competition.
Key Lots to Watch
Jean-Michel Basquiat's 1982 works remain the market's north star – any major Basquiat from this year commands premium attention. The Surrealist category, led by Leonora Carrington and female artists more broadly, may finally receive market recognition commensurate with critical acclaim. And for collectors of contemporary work, emerging market stars like Jadé Fadojutimi will test their secondary market legs.
Our Prediction
Conservative estimates will lead to healthy sell-through rates and modest headline prices. The market is stabilizing, not collapsing. Quality will triumph over speculation.