The numbers are in, and they tell a story of calibration. First-half 2024 auction sales across Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillips, and Bonhams declined 26% compared to H1 2023, and 36% from the 2022 peak. Yet these stark figures mask important nuances.
The Context: Comparing Peaks
The 2021-2022 period represented exceptional circumstances – pandemic savings, low interest rates, and speculative capital flowing into art. A pullback was inevitable and arguably healthy. Current levels more closely approximate sustainable market conditions.
What's Selling: Quality Speaks
Sell-through rates tell the real story. Works with impeccable provenance, fresh-to-market status, and conservative estimates achieved strong results. The market rewards quality and punishes speculation. Blue-chip artists like Basquiat, Monet, and newly minted stars like Carrington commanded attention; mid-market contemporary struggled.
Regional Dynamics
The U.S. maintained dominance while China's market contracted 33% amid economic headwinds. UK held steady at 18% global share; France showed resilience. Asian collectors remain active but selective.
Summer Preview
Expect reduced activity through August as the market takes its traditional pause. Fall will be the true test – both November marquee weeks and Art Basel Miami will reveal whether spring's cautious optimism extends or contracts.
Strategic Implications
For consignors: quality and reasonable expectations remain essential. For buyers: opportunities exist in overlooked categories. For everyone: patience.